Erdmann Housing Tracker

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August 2023 Residential Sales
Figure 1 contains the standard measures - sales, units for sale, and months of supply. Sales dropped a bit this month, but within the normal amount of…
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Kevin Erdmann
More on Mortgage Affordability
In a recent post, I reviewed mortgage affordability. I argued that the front-loaded cash outlays of conventional mortgages are a relatively arbitrary…
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Kevin Erdmann
10
August 2023 Residential Construction
I think this month’s residential construction update might add to the trading opportunities for the discerning housing observer. Updates below the…
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Kevin Erdmann
3
August 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
I haven’t had much to say about the EHT updates the last couple of months. The California supply miracle that seemed to be emerging last autumn became…
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Kevin Erdmann
5
Inflation: Everyone is right.
Mike Konczal at the Roosevelt Institute has an interesting post up about the current causes of inflation. His analysis suggests that supply constraints…
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Kevin Erdmann
Why are homebuilder rate buydowns effective?
Here is a graphic from Ali Wolf, the chief economist at Zonda. The textbook way to clear a market is to change the price. So, there are two questions…
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Kevin Erdmann
5
Interest Rates Aren't The Problem
I will walk through why rents are what is making housing unaffordable, not interest rates. And, I might complain a bit at the end about how attribution…
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Kevin Erdmann
10
More on Hovnanian 3Q 2023 Earnings
As I reported in the previous post, Hovnanian posted another good earnings report that the market responded well to. Analysis is below the paywall.
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Kevin Erdmann
August 2023
Hovnanian 3Q 2023 and musings on speculation and mortgage rates
Hovnanian continued the trend yesterday of testing object permanence in communal human perception. This was about the 98th homebuilder earnings…
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Kevin Erdmann
2
The 2023 Market Compared to 2006
Here is a chart comparing home price appreciation over 4 years for the 50 largest metropolitan areas. The blue bars end in July 2006 and the red bars…
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Kevin Erdmann
Note on Monetary Policy and Jackson Hole
JPow fascinates me. He has been epically good as Fed chair. But his commentary is loyal to all the broken conventional models that have made monetary…
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Kevin Erdmann
9
July 2023 New Residential Home Sales & Builder Updates
I am having a hard time divining any clear narrative patterns from the data right now. The general patterns continue - a return to moderate sales…
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Kevin Erdmann
© 2023 Kevin Erdmann
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