I should be working right now, but I get riled up whenever somebody starts predicting a price collapse in housing. I'm grateful that you corrected the conclusions that @FromKulak draws about the broken filtering system in older housing stock. The current situation is exacerbated by decisions that homebuyers make when seeking out good school districts. Communities with poor schools tend to have cheaper homes which generates a clear signal to first-time homebuyers to avoid looking for housing there. Parents will sacrifice housing quality for better school districts, and in a supply constrained environment it makes the rent/income slope worse.
So, it is possible to have a "price collapse" in communities with demographic changes, but if there are massive supply constraints in a region that tends to reinforce a flight to quality to more expensive neighborhoods with better schools. I've been seeing this effect in rural areas of New Hampshire and some towns around Boston--places that probably fall outside your data sets. It should also be noted that the "price collapse" often isn't enough to properly filter the quality of older homes in a way that benefits bargain hunters who aren't in a rat race for good schools.
I should be working right now, but I get riled up whenever somebody starts predicting a price collapse in housing. I'm grateful that you corrected the conclusions that @FromKulak draws about the broken filtering system in older housing stock. The current situation is exacerbated by decisions that homebuyers make when seeking out good school districts. Communities with poor schools tend to have cheaper homes which generates a clear signal to first-time homebuyers to avoid looking for housing there. Parents will sacrifice housing quality for better school districts, and in a supply constrained environment it makes the rent/income slope worse.
So, it is possible to have a "price collapse" in communities with demographic changes, but if there are massive supply constraints in a region that tends to reinforce a flight to quality to more expensive neighborhoods with better schools. I've been seeing this effect in rural areas of New Hampshire and some towns around Boston--places that probably fall outside your data sets. It should also be noted that the "price collapse" often isn't enough to properly filter the quality of older homes in a way that benefits bargain hunters who aren't in a rat race for good schools.