I agree with you on this, particularly when it comes to seeing where more chips fall come March 2023. My crystal ball tells me that there will be some more churn over the winter that manifests as post-Holiday slowdown and a stabilization of interest rates. Spring will bring some downward pressure on mortgage rates as inventory builds up, but builders should react with more starts in a more stable environment. And, if California keeps on strangling zoning codes, they could see a population uptick again coinciding with more multifamily starts and completions. (That may take a few years to bear real fruit, given standard construction timelines)
Conversely, April could turn out to be the cruelest month---with a Government shutdown, persistent inflation, higher unemployment from a burst tech bubble, and a vigorous trade war with China that continues to cause havoc to supply chains.
I agree with you on this, particularly when it comes to seeing where more chips fall come March 2023. My crystal ball tells me that there will be some more churn over the winter that manifests as post-Holiday slowdown and a stabilization of interest rates. Spring will bring some downward pressure on mortgage rates as inventory builds up, but builders should react with more starts in a more stable environment. And, if California keeps on strangling zoning codes, they could see a population uptick again coinciding with more multifamily starts and completions. (That may take a few years to bear real fruit, given standard construction timelines)
Conversely, April could turn out to be the cruelest month---with a Government shutdown, persistent inflation, higher unemployment from a burst tech bubble, and a vigorous trade war with China that continues to cause havoc to supply chains.