I think no matter which metrics we look at, from $/sqft to monthly payment / income, these ratios are all at the most unaffordable they've been.

We see Zillow with their 1% down and longer duration mortgagees (35, 40, 50 years). There are also mortgage copayment ($500 - 1000 saved per month) in exchange for equity like https://restatehomes.com

There are so many dynamics that its hard to predict, but at least right now it seems to be a stalemate of 8% 30 year rates with a market that has barely drawn down from its peak.

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Isn't one explanation for the Schiller "gap" simply ZIRP? It shows up in the price of equities, as well. In that sense, housing is like any other risk asset--it inflates when money is cheap.

The US population of working age adults--homebuyers and growth-makers--has been flat-to-down since ~GFC. We've had unit-growth (supply) in excess of people-growth (demand) for ~15 years, and yet prices have gone up, coincidental with rates coming down. I understand the supply-side arguments--I really do--but the elephant in the room is on the demand side. There is at least some evidence that when people-driven demand growth came to an ebb, cheap money stepped in to fill void (and has been doing so ever since, until just recently).

More here: https://www.therandomwalk.co/i/120973131/consider-the-everything-bubble

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