Nice, nice. Halfway through your victory lap for the year. I had forgotten about the RealPage kerfluffle and the idiocy of Stiglitz on the housing "bubble." Both topics seem to have faded away, and unless there's some sort of stupid uprising next year I think that Wall Street will still play a useful, albeit small, role in single family housing next year.
The general state of YIMBY vs NIMBY seems unclear to me, and I think this shows up in the data you've been presenting. The California miracle in Builder's Remedy and ADU regulations may take a long to manifest as a substantial force in new unit production. It's hard to assess how it will play out in the courts and political blowback. Here in Massachusetts, the YIMBY movement feels stalled.
I'd say my main source of short-term optimism is that homebuilder capacity will surely start to rise again. I don't exactly know all the details that have kept a lid on it for so long after the Covid shock, so I can't quantify it. I suppose it's a matter of faith. But, I think that one margin will basically determine everything else this year. Whatever the total number of homes worth of lumber, copper, concrete, and gypsum we can manage to produce this year, that is the number of homes we will build. And, surely, it has to go up.
Nice, nice. Halfway through your victory lap for the year. I had forgotten about the RealPage kerfluffle and the idiocy of Stiglitz on the housing "bubble." Both topics seem to have faded away, and unless there's some sort of stupid uprising next year I think that Wall Street will still play a useful, albeit small, role in single family housing next year.
The general state of YIMBY vs NIMBY seems unclear to me, and I think this shows up in the data you've been presenting. The California miracle in Builder's Remedy and ADU regulations may take a long to manifest as a substantial force in new unit production. It's hard to assess how it will play out in the courts and political blowback. Here in Massachusetts, the YIMBY movement feels stalled.
I'd say my main source of short-term optimism is that homebuilder capacity will surely start to rise again. I don't exactly know all the details that have kept a lid on it for so long after the Covid shock, so I can't quantify it. I suppose it's a matter of faith. But, I think that one margin will basically determine everything else this year. Whatever the total number of homes worth of lumber, copper, concrete, and gypsum we can manage to produce this year, that is the number of homes we will build. And, surely, it has to go up.