1 Comment

Thanks for the good year of content. I was glad to be reminded of the value of "Empty Houses" in a healthy market. It reminded me of some of your commentary on fallacies of agglomeration theory applied to housing prices. I've been struggling to understand the settlement patterns of the U.S. for the past 50 years and how that pertains to the future--in a nutshell: rural areas lose population and urban areas gain it, and as a consequence, rural areas will have more empty and low value dwellings. For a while I've regarded this as the natural order of things, but your research into mortgage access suppression makes me wonder if this imbalance isn't a true market phenomenon.

Yes, the city or the immediate suburbs of a city offer more opportunity and consequently cost more, but why should exurbs be subject to a big gut punch in terms of value? What network of policy choices have made this happen? From a political standpoint of MAGA it boils down to "Goldurned China and illegal immigrants" but what comes from that aside from a broad based recession driven by a nutty tariff regime?

Expand full comment