The New Business Cycle: The 2024 Recession

Recently, I wrote a series of posts about how a housing shortage changes the business cycle.

I realize I am vulnerable to availability bias. I have this idea, and now I’m going to see it everywhere. I’ll report what I see, and I’ll leave the estimate of the observations’ validity to you, the reader.

Resolved: We just had a recession, or at least what occurs in place of recessions when there is a housing shortage, and it’s probably nearing the recovery phase. (There will be slower growth going forward due to Trump mismanagement, of an undetermined scale, but that will be unrelated to the cyclical trends we have moved through.)

Figure 1 is the chart that first got me thinking about this post.

Figure 1

Analysis below the fold.