I don't love using private indexes for rents. Mostly because those are very spotty as far as agreement with census data. Real rents in MPLS using Census data are up 8% between 2017 and 2022. In fact rents on Apartment List are also up across that time period, it is only their rent estimate (which attempts to correct for quality and biases in their data) that rents are falling.
Upzoning and such are good policy. But to me they're clearly more fiscal/environmental than they are "affordable housing".
Thanks for the input. I do wonder about the data. There are reports in certain cases of poor data collection. But, at least for the MSA, permits seem to be pretty normal relative to population growth in Minneapolis, so I would be surprised if there is a major data problem.
Ah indeed you are correct. Accidentally comp'ed Minneapolis MSA with Minneapolis the city. Edited my comment to nix that so no one gets that notion.
That said I stand by the private rental indexes that try to be a more real time Census equivalent, yet diverge substantially from actual Census releases, should be used with immense caution and clear justification.
These three posts have been a bit sobering--thanks a lot. Currently, younger generations are frustrated by high housing costs and are probably open to reform measures in zoning and mortgage lending. What happens when they start inheriting real estate wealth from sick and dying Boomer family members? Do they go full NIMBY?
I don't love using private indexes for rents. Mostly because those are very spotty as far as agreement with census data. Real rents in MPLS using Census data are up 8% between 2017 and 2022. In fact rents on Apartment List are also up across that time period, it is only their rent estimate (which attempts to correct for quality and biases in their data) that rents are falling.
Upzoning and such are good policy. But to me they're clearly more fiscal/environmental than they are "affordable housing".
Thanks for the input. I do wonder about the data. There are reports in certain cases of poor data collection. But, at least for the MSA, permits seem to be pretty normal relative to population growth in Minneapolis, so I would be surprised if there is a major data problem.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ikY7
Ah indeed you are correct. Accidentally comp'ed Minneapolis MSA with Minneapolis the city. Edited my comment to nix that so no one gets that notion.
That said I stand by the private rental indexes that try to be a more real time Census equivalent, yet diverge substantially from actual Census releases, should be used with immense caution and clear justification.
That’s true. I use Zillow data which I find pretty good and it tracks closely with what you would expect cpi to look like if it didn’t have the lag.
These three posts have been a bit sobering--thanks a lot. Currently, younger generations are frustrated by high housing costs and are probably open to reform measures in zoning and mortgage lending. What happens when they start inheriting real estate wealth from sick and dying Boomer family members? Do they go full NIMBY?
OT but..
Given your views on inflation and interest rates....
If the Fed just sat on its balance sheet going forward...what would be the possible result/impact/influence on the domestic and global economies?