Lately, and mostly due to your recent posts, I've been feeling discouraged about any type of reform in zoning or mortgage regulations. There has been some improvement in the former, but none in the latter. Large scale rental buildings that originate in the private sector seem to be the most important contributor to housing stock going forward. Expansion in that sector is going to require more wins by the YIMBY contingent in places like California and Massachusetts. In my lifetime I don't see any hope for comprehensive upzoning of most single family districts.
I do think there is an optimistic wrinkle, in that I think single-family build-to-rent is going to take off faster than anyone imagines (with the caveat that immediately, there will be a movement to ban it) so that the worst of our recent trends might be mitigated. But, yeah, it sort of sucks that 16 years into a policy atom bomb, nobody even notices.
"In a recent post, I highlighted how regressive rent inflation has been. From 2015 to 2021, the growth of incomes after rent in the richest ZIP codes outpaced the growth of incomes in the poorest ZIP codes by about 50%. And almost all the difference was due to regressive rent inflation. That is a massive spike in economic inequality. It’s a direct, linear, systematic result of inadequate homebuilding."--KE
Egads. People wonder why there is so much popular dissatisfaction with the US economy and "system" today.
Answer: Because it is not working for a huge swath of people, generally renters. And in growing regions of the US, they will never be able to buy a house.
This is serious. If we want to people to "buy into the system" it has to work for them. I prefer free markets and an economy that is 80% in the private sector.
But if people see declining living standards for a couple generations...they will start opting for something else.
Neither party is even in the ballpark on this issue. Not even the parking lots.
Lately, and mostly due to your recent posts, I've been feeling discouraged about any type of reform in zoning or mortgage regulations. There has been some improvement in the former, but none in the latter. Large scale rental buildings that originate in the private sector seem to be the most important contributor to housing stock going forward. Expansion in that sector is going to require more wins by the YIMBY contingent in places like California and Massachusetts. In my lifetime I don't see any hope for comprehensive upzoning of most single family districts.
Sorry I've been a Debbie Downer.
I do think there is an optimistic wrinkle, in that I think single-family build-to-rent is going to take off faster than anyone imagines (with the caveat that immediately, there will be a movement to ban it) so that the worst of our recent trends might be mitigated. But, yeah, it sort of sucks that 16 years into a policy atom bomb, nobody even notices.
"In a recent post, I highlighted how regressive rent inflation has been. From 2015 to 2021, the growth of incomes after rent in the richest ZIP codes outpaced the growth of incomes in the poorest ZIP codes by about 50%. And almost all the difference was due to regressive rent inflation. That is a massive spike in economic inequality. It’s a direct, linear, systematic result of inadequate homebuilding."--KE
Egads. People wonder why there is so much popular dissatisfaction with the US economy and "system" today.
Answer: Because it is not working for a huge swath of people, generally renters. And in growing regions of the US, they will never be able to buy a house.
This is serious. If we want to people to "buy into the system" it has to work for them. I prefer free markets and an economy that is 80% in the private sector.
But if people see declining living standards for a couple generations...they will start opting for something else.
Neither party is even in the ballpark on this issue. Not even the parking lots.