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David Muccigrosso's avatar

To your point about the superstar cities driving people away despite income premiums, there’s a genuine difference between these scenarios:

1. Person feels priced out of Manhattan, moves to Phoenix for better affordability despite a relative pay cut.

2. Person feels priced out of Manhattan, moves to Buffalo to stay in region, helps drive slowly increasing unaffordability in Buffalo.

3. Person feels priced out of Manhattan and doesn’t want to live more than 3 hours away, moves out past Easton, PA (IE deepest western outskirts of NYC). Houses are dirt cheap because it’s bumblefuck Pennsylvania.

4. Person feels priced out of Manhattan, moves to deep LI or CT suburbs outside of census tract but well within 3 hours; houses are barely affordable with a stretch on two incomes, but vastly more spacious than the city.

5. Person feels priced out of Manhattan, moves to nearby suburbs mostly within greater NYC census tract. Is paying only one arm/leg for twice the space as Manhattan, but it’s still brutal and preventing saving for homeownership.

6. Person feels priced out of Manhattan, stays in Manhattan.

For the record, I’m roughly a 5.

But as we look at income relative to the superstar city… in 3-6, it’s entirely possible to hold the same job and income from Manhattan, while only 5-6 get counted as “living in the superstar city”! And although pre-2020, 1 was a BIG stretch to hold down a Manhattan job, 1-2 are not nearly as much of a stretch anymore in the post-2020 remote work era (and yes, I already know that trend was overblown, I’m only factoring in the properly-blown part here).

Moreover, that’s JUST for Manhattan jobs! There’s still more difference between someone moving from Manhattan to a farm out past Easton PA for cheaper housing, and someone who grew up down the road from that farm, runs his granddad’s mechanic shop, and is struggling against all the rich city folk bidding up housing in the area.

All of that is to say, I’m not sure we’re getting the full picture on flight from the superstar cities. I would like to know what the mix of flight was in terms of (1) distance of flight from the city, (2) relative cost-to-income differential incurred, and (3) absolute cost and income differentials.

Because it almost certainly IS a “mix”of 1-6, even more categories. But I’d like to know whether it’s (in descending order) “60/30/3/2/2/2/1”, “5/20/25/25/20/2”, “1/2/2/2/3/30/60”, or whatever else.

Just speculating, if it’s heavily loaded towards Phoenix, then we know “available-room-to-sprawl” was probably dominant, mortgage access not so much, and income wasn’t decisive for most fleers. If it’s a relatively even mix among 1-6, then all factors are most likely. And if most people were just fleeing to within long commute distance, then we credit lack of mortgage access for forcing people to buy up existing sprawl to maintain their incomes.

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