May 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

The case continues to build for a California YIMBY win.

To review: Last fall, I suggested that the tracker data was showing some supply-related price moderation in California. A potential early signal of YIMBY victories.

Then, Zillow implemented some structural changes in their price estimates, and with the revisions, the signal became more muddled. But, since then, the signal has returned. Over the past several months, the California metro areas are leading the way on price moderation that is associated with more supply (or at least more supply expectations).

These are the first baby steps of what will have to be a long process, but since October, supply-related price inflation has been receding, and the California cities are leading the way.

Also, don’t look now, but Austin appears to be joining the mix. Austin had a sizeable cyclical spike, which has returned to neutral and appears to be leveling out there. And, in the meantime, new price moderation in Austin appears to be supply-related.

Build, Austin, build.

“Founding” subscribers get details on the monthly changes on 30 major metropolitan areas.

More below the paywall for regular subscribers.