The “Humans over Private Equity for Homeownership Act” is a bill sponsored by Senator Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon) and co-sponsored by Angus King (I-Maine), Chris VanHollen (D-Maryland), Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona), Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont), and Mark Kelly (D-Arizona).
So, we're halfway through 2025 and we can take some stock of the U.S. housing market. Here are my lightly informed takes:
-No meaningful change in policy is imminent at the Federal level. This "Humans over Private Equity...." stupidity will probably never become law. Ditto for any type of mortgage reform. The BBB has some unimpressive support for affordable housing that probably won't get passed. The Fannie/Freddie fake privatization scheme is a nothingburger.
-State and local reform shows some mild momentum---particularly in California. The Northeast will continue to be screwed---Yglesias had a good piece on that recently which resonates with me as an inhabitant of the region. The larger, more disturbing trend, seems to be the continuing transformation of large parts of the Sunbelt into Closed Acccess communities with respect to development. If Austin goes NIMBY then we know that Texas is headed for trouble---or at least the type of stagnation that plagues Blue States.
-New home sales will probably stay steady. Existing home sales will probably be a mixed market for the next few years. Tariffs seem to be having a mild impact on construction costs for both labor and materials. The big price surges from the Covid era are sticky.
Love the fire this morning, Kevin! Generally, the neo-Brandeisian impulse to see everything as a nail leads to fatal misdiagnoses that they are unwilling to address. I do not think you are alone in finding the state of the discourse bankrupt on the Left.
One thing I would stress from a narrative perspective would be an aspirational understanding of the challenge. The exchange of rent for housing bankrolled by PE or whatever large entity is a positive sum interaction. I frankly think that's been the brilliance of the Abundance narrative, no boogie men, no blaming the others, just an aspirational idea that we can make our systems work better.
So, we're halfway through 2025 and we can take some stock of the U.S. housing market. Here are my lightly informed takes:
-No meaningful change in policy is imminent at the Federal level. This "Humans over Private Equity...." stupidity will probably never become law. Ditto for any type of mortgage reform. The BBB has some unimpressive support for affordable housing that probably won't get passed. The Fannie/Freddie fake privatization scheme is a nothingburger.
-State and local reform shows some mild momentum---particularly in California. The Northeast will continue to be screwed---Yglesias had a good piece on that recently which resonates with me as an inhabitant of the region. The larger, more disturbing trend, seems to be the continuing transformation of large parts of the Sunbelt into Closed Acccess communities with respect to development. If Austin goes NIMBY then we know that Texas is headed for trouble---or at least the type of stagnation that plagues Blue States.
-New home sales will probably stay steady. Existing home sales will probably be a mixed market for the next few years. Tariffs seem to be having a mild impact on construction costs for both labor and materials. The big price surges from the Covid era are sticky.
Very good.
The only minor adjustment I would make is that Austin has a much more hopeful future with Texans for Reasonable Solutions on the case.
Love the fire this morning, Kevin! Generally, the neo-Brandeisian impulse to see everything as a nail leads to fatal misdiagnoses that they are unwilling to address. I do not think you are alone in finding the state of the discourse bankrupt on the Left.
One thing I would stress from a narrative perspective would be an aspirational understanding of the challenge. The exchange of rent for housing bankrolled by PE or whatever large entity is a positive sum interaction. I frankly think that's been the brilliance of the Abundance narrative, no boogie men, no blaming the others, just an aspirational idea that we can make our systems work better.