April 2024 New Residential Construction

Well, hot on the heals of my breathless policy brief on the importance of the new breakout of single-family build-to-rent, the data update for the first quarter of 2024 takes the wind out of my sails.

Thanks a lot, Wall Street! Just one more reason not to trust those weasels.

Figure 1

Joking aside, this is a pretty noisy measure, and the numbers still are in line with a sharp upward trajectory. But, it is noisy enough that confirmation of trends is always a few quarters behind. I still expect 2025 and 2026 numbers to be well above any previous levels. And, single-family build-to-rent is still the only potential source for significant marginal unit growth for the homebuilders.

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