September 2023 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Supply conditions continue to improve marginally, generally more in the West than the East. Although, California’s supply-related price moderation has taken a breather while New York City has suddenly snuck into the lead on supply-side gains. I don’t know why. I don’t think it is policy related. There have not been major policy gains nor a rise in construction activity there.

The Texas cities all seem to have settled into a new price level that is about 6-10% above what I previously would have considered cyclically neutral. I know there has been some pushback there against their traditionally high property tax rates. I wonder if there has been enough systematic reduction in property taxes to create a permanent rise in property values as a result.

In general, the model continues to confirm that the small cyclical correction of 2022 bottomed out near neutral and if anything has begun to rise again. Meanwhile, the slow price moderation from added supply continues to push in the opposite direction. That is all perfectly fine with me, as things are in October 2023.

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