June 2026 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update
More sideways markets. Boring recovery, etc.
Recent temporary trends and noise in inflation measures have made very short term inferences difficult. I’d say that’s still where we are, with continued general sideways movement of home prices and construction trends, in general.
Figure 1 compares the CPI estimate of core inflation excluding shelter (inflation without food, energy, or rent) to a monthly rent inflation estimate using Zillow’s ZORI rent estimate.
June CPI estimates took a big dip, so relative to CPI estimates, rents have taken a tick up this month. This is a correction I have been speculatively expecting. It sort of happened all at once this month, which isn’t uncommon in CPI data, as Figure 1 makes clear. We might see more of this, more gradually, going forward.
More below.
