Ignoring Bad Real Estate Analysis for Fun and Profit, A Series: Part 1 Mortgage Rates

For subscribers

Unhelpful indicators like months of inventory are popular. Mortgage rates are overestimated as a driver of housing demand. The Fed’s influence on mortgage rates is widely mis-stated. (See Scott Sumner and the market monetarists for clarity on this.)

In this post, for subscribers, I’m going to walk through some examples of how conventional analysis continues to offer opportunities for excess future returns for contrarian investors who know what to ignore, and continues to fuel dangerous policy sentiment for policymakers and pundits focused on the wrong things.

This will be a 3 part series which will contain useful and unique concepts for analyzing real estate markets that you won’t see anywhere else.

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