Thoughts on 21st Century Housing & the Business Cycle

And 2025 2Q GDP Update

Scott Sumner has a good post on GDP growth. He makes this point, which I agree with:

Recall that macroeconomics consists of three primary domains:

1. The business cycle

2. Inflation

3. Long run real GDP growth

The first two are mostly determined by the Fed, whereas the third is impacted by policy actions taken by the President and Congress.

His point is that, as bad as Trump is, his governance will mainly play out in slow-motion as the various effects of fiscal policy weigh on long run real growth.